Thursday, July 24, 2008
By Ron Holdraker - Times Editor
Assemblyman, Bob Oaks
Political fortunes change in a heartbeat, just ask former Governor Eliot Spitzer.
Assemblyman Bob Oaks, has represented the 128th State Assembly District for the past 15 years. This Republican son of a Republican stronghold has cruised through elections with nary a scratch and most times without a challenger.
When 25th Congressional District's Congressman Jim Walsh announced several months ago that this would be his last term, political pundits tossed names about for a replacement.
Walsh won his last two year term by the skin of his teeth, thanking the strong Republican/Conservative nature of Wayne County for his victory over Democrat challenger Dan Maffei.
Maffei, an Onondaga County name and former congressional aide to U.S. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, has announced his intention to run again for the seat to fill Walsh's shoes next election. Onondaga County makes up about 2/3 of the 25th Congressional District by population.
Bob Oaks carefully considered his options. He has strong name recognition and has been a sure-fire winner and money contribution magnet for the Republicans. In his 7th term, Oaks currently represents an Assembly District which includes all of Wayne County and parts of Cayuga and Oswego counties. Bob has already begun the rounds of municipal Republican committees within the 25th Congressional District to introduce himself and his views. He also has begun to collect money for the campaign ahead, to show the Onondaga Republicans his strength in mounting a solid challenge to Maffei.
Oaks realizes that the situation is win, or go home. If he is successful in swaying the support of the Onondaga Republican Committee, it will be an uphill fight. Maffei already has a considerable war chest of contributions and a head start on the campaign trail.
Oaks is nobody's fool. He knows that in the 25th Congressional District, comprised of all of Onondaga and Wayne Counties along with parts of Cayuga and Monroe County , Republicans hold a 20,000 registered voter edge. He also realizes that if he gets the Onondaga County Republican nod, then losses the election in November, there is no going back to the State Assembly. “There are enough things working to make this a legitimate opportunity,” said Oaks.
Oaks currently is not alone in trying to convince the Onondaga County Republicans he should be the party choice. He will be challenged by Republicans Dale Sweetland, a former president in the Onondaga County Legislature and Ryan McMahon, a 28 year-old, 1st term Syracuse City Common Councilman.
To fill the vacancy left, if Oaks pushes forward with his campaign, Republican, Wayne County Treasurer, Tom Warnick has announced his intentions to run for the 128th Assembly seat also up this November. Tom has made it clear that he would back off from the Assembly seat if Oaks decides to stay put.
Warnick, a “die hard financial conservative,” has often been at odds with some of the spending practices of the Wayne County Board of Supervisors. He had been vocal in his warnings of ill-fated projects undertaken by the County, with time proving his financial sensibilities. “I hope to bring my fiscal conservatism to the state level, they need it,” commented Tom.
A harsh critic of the state budget process and the State's move to make the New York State Canal System part of the Thruway Authority, Tom is in the process of putting together a campaign committee.
The early May meeting in several weeks with the Onondaga County Republican Committee will define the path these two Wayne County sons will follow.